COVID 19 Regression analysis Update

Posted on Tue 19 May 2020 in Mathematics

The Previous COVID regression analysis was fairly accurate. However, the opening of lockdown offset the statistics a bit and now there are more number of projected cases. Here is a recomputation of the statistics, which projects an average of 172,000 cases by June 1 and 520,000 cases overall by August end.

covid static
Y-axis: number of new cases per day. X-axis: number of days since first case.

Here's an animated view:

covid dynamic

The relevant files can be found in this GitHub repo.

UPDATE: As of May 30 9:30 pm, The recorded cases are ~174,000. I was assuming a ~10% error margin on this prediction, but I ended up being quite close to the number. The final number of cases are expected to be ~181,000 by 31st May night, resulting in an error margin of 4.1%.

P.S: Feel free to clone and tweak the data while citing this as the original source. I do not assume responsibility in the event that this data proves to be wrong or otherwise.

P.P.S: GeoGebra 6 sucks big time! GeoGebra 5 da real MVP.